http://www.marketwatch.com/story/com...ims-2011-09-22
"...WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - The U.S. Labor Department will release weekly jobless claims at 8:30 a.m. Eastern. Economists surveyed by MarketWatch expect claims in the week ended Sept. 17 to drop to 424,000 from an initial reading of 428,000 in the prior week. Claims rose last week to the highest level since late June, reflecting the lack of hiring in the U.S..."
Fxstreet đoán new claims = 418k.
Hôm nay có thể "điện chạy ngược" chăng, do vàng xuống v́ QUÁ lo sợ, nay tin thất nghiệp tốt, vàng lên lại 1 chút, do bớt lo sợ?
Tin hôm qua "khủng" nhất trong năm, nên giá chạy lung tung.
Tin kinh tế toàn xấu mà sao vàng lại xuống nhanh vậy bác Trần!!
THÔNG THƯỜNG, khi xấu 1 chút, nguời ta bán stocks, MUA VÀNG.Originally Posted by sonic_tannk
Nhưng nay QUÁ XẤU, người ta QUÁ SỢ, chạy MUA USD, làm USD tăng vọt.
Bạn coi graph này: http://www.marketwatch.com/investing/index/dxy
USD tăng vọt.
Có ai ngờ AUD nay chỉ mua được 0,9785 USD, trong khi vài ngày trước mua được 1,02 USD, có lúc 1,03 USD. Xuống hơn 5% so với USD.
Nếu bạn tính trên bản vị AUD, hoặc EUR, th́ VÀNG KHÔNG XUỐNG.
Chỉ trên bản vị USD là vàng xuống, đó là v́ USD tăng, chứ thật ra vàng không xuống.
Ví dụ, nói là tôi "lỗ vàng", chứ nay nếu tôi bán vàng ra, thu lại ít USD thật, nhưng tôi mua được nhiều AUD, th́ cũng đâu có lỗ.
Tôi vẫn muốn mua AUD từ lâu, mua bonds Úc lời 6%.
Cái lợi của nhà giàu khi đánh tài chánh là chỗ đó. Tôi đánh cho Institutions, ít khi nào lỗ, là như vậy.
kiểu này có thể xuống tới 1600 /oz .
Tôi hy vọng bác Trần sẽ chiến thắng :) Để có ngày con cháu chúng ta được giáo dục bằng những phương pháp Ivy League. Sinh viên Việt Nam ra trường thường rất kém, đa phần nay ra đều phải đào tạo lại bởi các doanh nghiệp tuyển dụng, tốn rất nhiều công sức. Vậy mà số trường ĐH mới mở cứ mọc ra như nấm sau mưa v́ nhiều người thấy làm giáo dục rất lăi. Đến khi không tuyển sinh được như năm nay th́ họ kêu như kền kền đ̣i Bộ giáo dục cho tự chọn điểm sàn.
Tôi nghĩ là cán bộ lĩnh vực kinh tế của CSVN không thể giải được các problem set như kiểu bác nói đâu.
C̣n chuyện bạn bè trên mạng này tôi thấy không tin ai khác được mấy. Rất nguy hiểm.
1Mấy bữa trước thấy cụ la quá thâp bữa nay lai phán quả bự vậy?
Nếu ai đă lỗ và phải ôm vàng chờ thời th́ có thể nghiên cứu bài này của thầy Sean Hyman, hy vọng vớt vát được chút nào hay chút đó. @Dr Tran nếu bạn nghĩ DJ sẽ xuống cả ngàn điểm th́ tại sao không short DJ index? Gỡ lại bên vàng bạn đang ôm?
http://ca.advfn.com/p.php?pid=qkchar...ol=FX%5EUSDCAD
Oil Says Recession is Coming
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A Publication of The Sovereign Society
Oil Says: “Recession Is Coming”
By Sean Hyman, Editor, Currency Cross Trader
Dear Sovereign Investor,
The other day I was watching the King of Queens...
In the show, Arthur Spooner said to Doug Heffernan: “Yeah, back in my day I could really sell.” So Doug asked him what he used to sell.
He replied: “Gasoline.”
I couldn’t help but laugh at that. I mean, when was the last time you needed a salesman to talk you into filling up your tank? I’d say never.
In reality, we all buy gas because it’s a necessity, pure and simple.
Every day, gas prices shift because the underlying commodity - oil - moves in price. Oil moves in price because the worldwide supply and demand for oil is changing. That has major implications for the global economy as a whole.
As a trader, I watch oil prices (and gas prices) to get a clearer picture of what’s really going on with the economy. It’s one of the purest indicators I watch.
Right now, oil prices are predicting a recession. Take a look at the oil chart below and you’ll get a far more accurate picture of what’s happening in the world...
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Oil Peaking in May & Breaking Its Uptrend in August =
An Economy Heading for Recession!
Click here to veiw larger image
Oil Tells Us TWICE on the Chart That
The Economy Has Turned South
There’s an old saying on Wall Street: charts don’t lie.
So if you want to know what’s really going on in the markets, and get a completely unbiased, accurate look at the economy, look at the charts.
That’s especially the case when you’re watching assets that are vital to the economy. And nothing is more vital or broadly used in the economy than oil.
As you can see from the chart above, oil prices peaked as we rolled into May. What do you want to bet that the economy had already peaked by then - if not before?
Then oil broke its uptrend line in August. That’s huge. Oil held this uptrend throughout the entire recovery, going back all the way to 2009. Breaking that uptrend means that the economy is heading south a lot faster than everyone is saying.
For the moment, oil is consolidating as it gets ready for its next leg down. The next leg down will be fast and severe. That’s when more and more people will see how bad things are “really” getting.
OPEC & Oil Shippers Agree With the Oil Chart
But to add to what the charts are saying, I found it interesting that OPEC and a huge oil shipper are both confirming what we’re seeing above too.
For instance, the CEO of RS Platou, Norway’s biggest shipbroker, said that as a result of slowing economies and curbed shipments, the demand for oil supertankers has dropped to zero!
He went on to say that America is importing the smallest amount of Persian Gulf crude in 14 years.
He’s also still expecting super-tankers to lose money for at least another year. Pretty sobering words from this CEO right? I think so. But he’s just confirming what I’ve been saying for a while about oil and the slowing economy.
However, OPEC is also backing up my opinion too.
On Monday, OPEC said that fuel demand will falter as economic growth in the U.S. weakens and as the debt crisis in Europe worsens.
In addition to this, the usable oil supplies are about to increase as Libyan oil comes back online according to an OPEC speech in Dubai. According to OPEC, Libya has only been able to produce about 45,000 barrels of oil a day, compared to the 1.6 million barrels a day that they used to produce as recently as last January.
So this will increase the supplies of usable oil available, but with a waning demand, oil will go down on both accounts (increasing supply & decreasing demand).
How to Cash in on $60 Oil and Lower
As a currency trader, I’m loving this pullback in oil. It’s the ideal opportunity to short the Canadian dollar.
You see, Canada supplies the U.S. with more oil than any other country. So when oil prices drop, Canada’s economy and currency suffer. Therefore, if oil is heading south...so is the Canadian dollar.
At the same time, when economies slow and oil prices suffer, the U.S. dollar tends to rally. Investors rush for the safety of the U.S. dollar like they did in 2008.
Knowing this, you can easily bet against the Canadian dollar, and buy the U.S. dollar for as long as this economic slowdown persists. (And unfortunately, that may be a while.)
As the Global Economy Turns South, USD/CAD Heads North
Click here to view larger image
This change in oil is already causing a pivotal shift in the dollar vs. Canadian dollar pairing (USD/CAD). However, the train has not completely left the station yet. So there’s still time to hop on board.
As a Forex trader, you can take advantage of this by buying the USD/CAD pair. As always, if you’re interested in trading this pair, be sure to set a stop-loss and profit limit to protect your overall capital.
Oil prices are predicting a severe economic downturn. But it doesn’t mean it has to be that way for your personal portfolio. You can proactively protect it by positioning yourself into the plays that will rally as the global economy slows.
Bottom line: a recession isn’t the end of the world. As the economy suffers, there will be plenty more opportunities like this.
Have a Nice Day!
Sean Hyman
Editor, Currency Cross Trader
Nghe theo bạn hiềnnên sáng giờ tóm được hơn 200 thằng VC (pips) rồi, để luôn nếu đúng theo như kỳ suy thoái 2008 th́ USD/CAD có thể lên 1.3. Toi qua bấm lộn nút chứ không th́ đă được them 100 pip nữa. I have to type in English now 'cuz dunno why its too damn slow in VNmese. As for gold, just forget it for now, God know how low it will go. Its good to be gold free sometime. Gôd luck everyone.
Dẫu xây chín bậc phù đồ
Không bằng làm phước cứu dăm chục ngàn
DJ xuống trên 300 điểm....
Vàng (1741), AUD (0,9826) lên lại 1 chút, hy vọng trở ngược lên lại, v́ nguời ta bắt đầu sợ USD bị sập, CP Mỹ default.
Định short dầu kiếm chút cháo th́ lại có cái email này. Các bạn hiền tham khảo:
Goldman Sachs Says Oil Prices Will Soar to $130 in 12 Months ... We Told You That Weeks Ago
By William Patalon III, Executive Editor, Money Morning
Wall Street heavyweight Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (NYSE: GS) is now predicting that oil prices will soar in the next 12 months, with London-traded Brent crude reaching $130 a barrel and U.S.-traded West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude reaching $126.50.
The fact that oil prices will soar wasn't a surprise to readers of Private Briefing - we made a similar prediction to the charter subscribers of our new premium investment-advisory service six weeks ago.
Furthermore, we showed subscribers how to profit.
Goldman analysts really believe that oil prices will soar: From Monday's closing prices ($110.30 for Brent and $86.92 for WTI), the heavyweight investment bank's 12-month target prices for oil would represent an 18% gain for the London-traded crude and a 46% gain for its U.S.-traded counterpart.
Worries that the U.S. malaise and Eurozone debt crises would sap global demand have caused oil prices to fall from higher levels back in the spring. In its forecast, Goldman echoed some of the same points that we have made repeatedly to Private Briefing readers since it debuted back on Aug. 11 - namely that demand in China, India and other emerging markets would compensate for weak growth in the developed economies.
The bottom line: There's little doubt oil prices will soar. That makes oil-related stocks - and energy investments in general - "must have" portfolio holdings.
The only question is: How do you play it?
Here at Money Morning, and also in Private Briefing, our experts have said this time and again: The time to make energy-related investments is when energy prices are low. Although Private Briefing has been around for just a bit more than a month, subscribers who have followed our energy-related recommendations have already logged some nice returns of as much as 18%.
And there's plenty of upside to come.
____________________ ____________________ ____________________ _____________
So??????? Anybody's guess, I guess.
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